Decoding the Arctic to predict winter weather
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Each autumn, MIT researcher Judah Cohen analyzes atmospheric patterns to predict winter weather. His work focuses on understanding how stratospheric conditions influence seasonal climate, aiming to improve forecasting accuracy. Cohen's findings could enhance preparedness for extreme winter events, benefiting sectors like agriculture and energy.
Decoding the Arctic to Predict Winter Weather
Researchers are turning to the Arctic for clues about winter weather patterns. Judah Cohen, a research scientist at MIT, is at the forefront of this effort, analyzing how Arctic conditions, particularly sea ice and snow cover, affect weather across North America and Europe.
This year, Cohen anticipates that unusually low levels of Arctic sea ice could lead to extreme winter conditions in the eastern United States and Europe. His models forecast a heightened chance of severe weather events due to recent historical lows in sea ice extent.
Recent data shows the Arctic is warming at double the global rate, which alters the polar vortex—the band of winds that usually contains cold air. A weakened polar vortex can lead to "polar outbreaks," allowing extreme cold air to escape southward.
Impact of Arctic Conditions
Cohen and his team use satellite observations and weather models to track Arctic conditions, focusing on:
- Sea ice extent
- Snow cover across Siberia and Canada
- Temperature anomalies
Their research suggests a snowier Siberia can lead to colder temperatures in North America, impacting sectors like agriculture and energy. Accurate winter forecasts are crucial for farmers and energy companies to prepare for increased heating demands and adjust planting schedules.
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📰 Original Source: https://news.mit.edu/2026/decoding-arctic-to-predict-winter-weather-0108
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